Russian travel market forecast by 2020


According to the forecast report of Promsvyazbank, which provides Internet acquiring services to local online travel agencies, the number of the Russians sent on organized tours can increase by 15 % (up to 7,5 million people) in 2017. According to the main analyst of the bank, 2016 will be the bottom of the tourist market, and then the market will start to gradually restore its volumes. Consequently, the number of the Russians going on tours abroad can increase by 27,5 % up to 5,1 million at year-end 2017, provided no material currency fluctuations.

If the forecasts are true, the market will have the positive dynamics for the first time since 2014. In the midst of devaluation of the rouble in 2014 the tour operators lost 14 % of the clients, and in 2015 – additional 21,2 %. According to Promsvyazbank report, the Russian outbound travel market will decrease by 13 % at year-end 2016. In monetary terms the market of organized tourism decreased from USD 7,7 billion in 2013 to USD 3,8 billion in 2015. The forecast for 2016 is USD 3,6 billion.

In spite of emerging positive tendencies the complete recovery of the industry can take at least four years, according to Promsvyazbank forecasts: 8,7 million Russians will go on tours in 2020, which is about the same as in 2012 (8,9 million tourists) and 12 % less than the historic maximum reached in 2013 (9,9 million tourists). In monetary terms the market volume in 2020 can be USD 5,6 billion which is comparable with 2010 – USD 5,5 billion.